Fiscal Balance and Current Account in Professional Forecasts

This paper investigates the relationship between financial institutions' expectations of the current account and the fiscal balance. Using professional macroeconomic forecasts for the G‐7 countries, we find a positive relationship between forecasts of the cyclically adjusted fiscal balance deficit and forecasts of the current account deficit, indicating that professional forecasts embody links implied by the twin deficits hypothesis. In assessing the relationship between the forecasts of the fiscal deficit and the current account, we find that forecasters correctly make the distinction between the effect of fiscal policy and automatic stabilizers.     

The fundamental theorem of asset pricing for continuous processes under small transaction costs

A version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing is proved for continuous asset prices with small proportional transaction costs. Equivalence is established between: (a) the absence of arbitrage with general strategies for arbitrarily small transaction costs ${\varepsilon > 0}${\varepsilon > 0}, (b) the absence of free lunches with bounded risk for arbitrarily small transaction costs ${\varepsilon > 0}${\varepsilon > 0}, and (c) the existence of e{\varepsilon}-consistent price systems—the analogue of martingale measures under transaction costs—for arbitrarily small ${\varepsilon > 0}${\varepsilon > 0}. The proof proceeds through an explicit construction, as opposed to the usual separation arguments. The paper concludes comparing numéraire-free and numéraire-based notions of admissibility, and the corresponding martingale and local martingale properties for consistent price systems.     

The Italian airport industry in transition: a performance analysis

This paper analyzes the impacts of Italian government actions on the efficiency of 36 airports between 2001 and 2003. The changes have included privatization, enlargement of the services provided directly by airport management companies, through the modification of the concession agreements, and the creation of two hubs. The analysis, using the consolidated two-stage data envelopment analysis with bootstrapping, indicates that airports with a majority public holding are on average more efficient and the presence of two hubs is source of inefficiency.     

Eco‐labelling by a for‐profit certifier: Countervailing power and its consequences

For‐profit certifier's eco‐labelling is common in industries where firms have some “countervailing power” on sharing gains from labelling. We show that the certification standard for an environmental quality is lowered when firms have strong “power.” A certifier with too low bargaining power will prefer to sell to the best offer rather than bargain. This switch in the selling mechanism also thwarts his incentives in setting the standard. This is consequential for evaluating policies. The dimensions and even signs of welfare changes induced by taxes and subsidies depend upon the mechanism used, and ultimately upon firms’ countervailing power.     

Trust,risk and time preferences: evidence from survey data

The paper shows that time preferences and risk preferences are key covariates of self-reported trust. They both predict negatively a measure of generalized trust; however, risk aversion is positively correlated with an index of particularized trusting behaviour (which refers to the circle of known people).     

Measuring and forecasting regional environmental and economic efficiency in Italy

Environmental and economic efficiency has being receiving growing attention among researchers. In general terms, this concept is related to the capability of the economic systems to employ natural resources efficiently, so as to increase economic and human wealth. This clearly implies that both the economic and ecological aspects of decisions ought to be considered. Bearing this in mind, this article considers economic and ecological performance together, by applying data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist productivity index to investigate the efficiency of the 20 Italian regions from 2004 to 2011. The results reveal that the northern regions have been more efficient than the southern ones, highlighting the strong geographical differences between the two. Furthermore, this article uses the grey system theory to forecast regional, economic and environmental efficiency. The results of the forecasting analysis show that the north–south duality remains strong and will possibly increase since the regions in the south get worse in term of environmental and economic efficiency.     

Buy Local! Familiarity and Preferences for Extra Virgin Olive Oil of Italian Consumers

Over the last few years, the origin of the local product has played a central role in consumer choices. This study explores what Italian consumers want and look for when purchasing olive oil by combining a web-based survey and a perceived analysis technique. In particular, preferences for different olive oil attributes as well as the psychographic traits of respondents were revealed through a web-based questionnaire administered to Italian consumers (N = 179). From this questionnaire, respondents who indicated their availability to participate further underwent a preference test under blind conditions (N = 99). Respondents also did an expectation test based on the visual observation of the labels. Results showed that the majority of consumers considered local production, PDO and region as factors of highest importance in determining olive oil quality.     

Productivity,innovation strategies and industrial relations in SMEs. Empirical evidence for a local production system in northern Italy

The paper aims to provide an original contribution to evaluating several kinds of relations between four areas of innovation activities – training, technology, organization, ICT (information and communication technologies) – and industrial relations and firm’s economic performance. Quantitative evidence for a SME‐based local production system is provided by exploiting two datasets: the first is derived from a direct survey carried out in 2005 collecting data on innovations, labour flexibility and industrial relations; the second is represented by a panel of official balance sheets data for the period 1998–2004. The analysis is divided in two consequential parts. We first examine the drivers of different innovation strategies and subsequently we exploit innovation indicators as potential drivers of firm’s productivity. The results show that training activities and organizational changes have strong links with many industrial relations indicators, thus emerging as industrial relations driven innovations. On the contrary, ICT and technological innovation seem to be more influenced by firms’ past performances than by industrial relations. The analysis on labour productivity drivers shows that training activities are the most relevant factors; then, ranked consequently, technological innovation, organisational innovations and, finally, ICT also appear to impact on productivity levels. It is worth noting that the role of ICT emerges more robustly when endogeneity is specifically addressed. Finally, the role of firm size seems here to be overshadowed by other drivers.     

Identity Bias in Negative Word of Mouth Following Irresponsible Corporate Behavior: A Research Model and Moderating Effects

Current research has documented how cases of irresponsible corporate behavior generate negative reactions from consumers and other stakeholders. Existing research, however, has not examined empirically whether the characteristics of the victims of corporate malfeasance contribute to shaping individual reactions. This study examines, through four experimental surveys, the role played by the national identity of the people affected on consumers’ intentions to spread negative word of mouth (WOM). It is shown that national identity influences individual reactions indirectly; mediated by perceived similarity and sympathy. Consumers perceive foreign victims as different from the self and this reduces the sympathy experienced towards them. Sympathy is an emotion that shapes consumer reactions and regulates WOM. The study identifies two moderating processes of this effect. Individuals who score high on collective narcissism are most likely to be strongly biased against foreign victims. In-group bias is also moderated by the perceived severity of the crisis. When a case is perceived as very serious, perceived similarity plays a less important role in generating sympathy because consumers focus on the perceived suffering of the victims. Hence, in-group bias is stronger in cases perceived as having minor consequences. The paper contributes to the literature on corporate social irresponsibility and offers implications for both scholars and managers.     

The Choice of the Working Secto in Transition: Income and non-income determinants of sector participation in Kazakhstan

This study compares the individual, household and location characteristics of private employees, the self-employed, the unemployed and the economically inactive in Kazakhstan making use of a 1996 World Bank Living Standards Measurement Survey. The purpose is to understand whether the process of transition has determined a selection of workers exiting the state sector and entering the three relatively new 'pools' of private employees, self-employed and unemployed. An 'occupational choice' model is used to explore the determinants of sector participation. It is found that income opportunities are similar between the private and self-employment sectors, that the private sector is not necessarily the workers' first choice and that non-income determinants including local economic and labour market conditions and household related factors explain better than income the choice of the working sector. Self-employment seems to be a key sector in understanding the mechanisms of sector choice and the reallocation of labour. Unemployment appears as a choice of last resort and made by truly 'rationed' individuals.